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COVID Economic Outlook and The Future, by NAB Economists

I attended an economic briefing by a senior NAB economist not long ago. I figured you or your business would find these collated data insightful.

The National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence Index rates the current level of business conditions in Australia. Changes in business sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment. See below how lockdowns affected business confidence and investment.

Business confidence chart B.jpg

Business investment chart B.jpg

These consumption data below highlight industry winners and losers. Most of these are most likely what we expected:

Business winners losers chart B.jpg

And how about employment by these sectors below?

Employment changes chart C.jpg

It is encouraging to hear that signs of global recovery are observable as seen below:

Global economy recovery chart B.jpg

The second lockdown in Victoria is probably slowing down Australian recovery during Q3 (Q3 data are not captured above yet). While housing market has held up, underlying market conditions appear weak over the next couple of years.

Nonetheless, NAB economists suggested that recovery is underway and expected to continue over the next couple of years.

It’d make sense if now is a great time to position our respective organisations for cost-minimisation to protect profitability and be agile for the recovery. If you have any question on energy cost minimisation, feel free to contact us.

Stay safe!

P.S. Obviously, we are not giving any economic or financial advice here.

Source: NAB Economic Outlook – Interim Update (at SEBN Open Forum, 18th Aug 2020)

Posted on Sep 23, 2020

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